We'll be a long time in lockdown ...

A slow steady rise in the numbers of Blackcap, Chiffchaff, Whitethroat. Some Fallow Deer showing well. The Mandarin around again. Quite nice all in, which is just as well because we birders are going to be here for some time. Possibly the rest of this year and into next. Here's why I think this.

There are two ways out of this pandemic; Vaccine or Herd Immunity. We'd all prefer a vaccine, but there is a long period of testing of any candidate, possibly (I believe) up to two years. We could shorten it, but that is risky as that testing period is there for a reason. Meanwhile, our economy will slide into depression and life will become more difficult. A prolonged shutdown will cost lives as we will be unable to look after everyone who needs it. If you thought being unable to get your hands on toilet roll was frustrating, wait until we start running out of food. So we will have to open up the economy at a point where we don't have a vaccine

That points to some kind of herd immunity strategy. The Herd Immunity strategy is based round the notion that there are vulnerable people who if they get the virus may die, and there are less vulnerable people who will nearly all live if they get the virus. If we can keep the vulnerable ('old') people isolated whilst we get the proportion of the population who have had the virus to over 60%  then the vulnerable people could be let out again as the level of immunity in the community means the virus is unlikely to spread.

Optimistic calculations say we currently have around 20% immunity currently. So we need to go through what we have been through another three times.

A managed Herd Immunity has always been the underlying principle of the government strategy because of the sheer practical impossibility of the alternative. We are currently trying to 'flatten the curve'. That means get the demand down and the capacity of the health service up to a point where it can manage the demand. We are likely to achieve that in the next few weeks.

Hence, by the end of April we will be looking at lifting the lockdown in some way. The strategy will be, I think, to get the economy moving, allow the virus to spread amongst the younger section of the population (because we cannot realistically prevent that), which will increase health care demand, and keep the vulnerable people isolated.

I think this is going to be the way of things for a few years. We will evolve into a society that lives with the virus, rebuilding our businesses and social lives in ways the avoid close contact.

During this phase it will be important to keep the demand on the health service as low as possible, and keep vulnerable people locked up. I wouldn't be surprised if families are allowed to go on holiday, for instance, but not with old people.

Where does that leave birders? Well, isolated at home I fear. Most birders are over 50, myself included, and enough people my age have had very bad experiences, not just Boris, to make me think getting it would not be a wise move. So I think the government will say that trips that are not work related or involve taking young people on holiday or out socially will remain banned. And that means most of our birding trips.

I think there's also a problem for nature reserves building. Take Minsmere, the gold standard of bird reserves. Most people who go there are over 60, never mind 50. They spend much of their time sat in hides. It isn't possible to socially isolate in a hide, so they will be shut. It's going to be pretty hard to watch the scrape, or scan for Bitterns from the Bittern hide, if we can't go into hides. So if reserves do open up, I think there will be new ways of allowing people to see the key areas, eg long screens with gaps and people moving freely behind.

But that's a while off. Meanwhile allowing pensioners to all head off on a day to the coast adds potential strain on the NHS, exposes NHS staff to more virus, and for that reason it isn't going to happen.